Contabilizar las desigualdades no es suficiente, hay que explicarlas

Dividendos

Gracias a Thomas Piketty y sus colegas, que han recopilado un volumen impresionante de datos, el tema de las desigualdades se ha convertido en un tema de primera importancia. Pero, a falta de una explicación completa, sus propuestas no van a la raíz del fenómeno.

Esta contribución propone un examen crítico de la interpretación de Piketty y, a continuación, un esbozo de análisis alternativo. Más allá de la naturaleza necesariamente algo técnica de esta discusión en la conclusión se abordarán cuestiones programáticas.

La teoría ecléctica de Thomas Piketty
Podemos partir aquí de lo que Piketty llama la primera “ley fundamental” del capitalismo en su libro Le capital au XXIème siècle (edición en castellano El capital en el siglo XXI, Fondo de Cultura Económica, Madrid, 2014). Según la misma,  la ganancia (G) se calcula aplicando al capital (K) la tasa de ganancia (r), que Piketty prefiere llamar la tasa de rendimiento. Tenemos, pues, B= rK. Se ha señalado muchas veces1/ que no se trata de una ley sino de una relación contable que se debería escribir al revés, para encontrar la definición clásica de la tasa de ganancia como la relación entre la ganancia y el capital, que se escribiría más bien como r = prof / K.

Sin embargo, el inusual criterio de lectura adoptada por Piketty no permite analizar las coyunturas concretas, lo que se puede demostrar aplicándola a la fase de restauración de las ganancias en Francia, entre 1982 y 1989. Los datos de Piketty2/ muestran que la parte de las ganancias en la renta nacional aumentó entre estas dos fechas del 23,1 % al 32 %, o sea un aumento del 39 %. ¿Cómo se descompone este aumento? La relación entre capital y renta se mantuvo prácticamente constante durante el mismo período, pasando de 3,74 a 3,82 (un aumento del 2 %). La tasa de rendimiento aumentó del 6,2 % al 8,4 %, un aumento del 36 %.

Este es solo un hallazgo estadístico. Si se lee a la manera de Piketty, se dirá que la tasa de ganancia ha aumentado, lo que lleva a un aumento en la participación de las ganancias, para un capital que ha progresado solo ligeramente. Un economista corriente (cualquiera que sea su escuela) dirá que el aumento de la parte de las ganancias ha llevado a un aumento de la tasa de ganancia. Esta lectura es coherente con las peculiaridades de este período: estuvo marcado por una rigurosa política de austeridad que redujo la parte de los salarios y por tanto aumentó el la de las ganancias. Por tanto, el aumento de la tasa de ganancia que se observa es sólo el resultado de este brusco movimiento en la distribución del valor añadido entre el capital y el trabajo.

La lectura en sentido inverso de Piketty sólo sería aceptable si la tasa de ganancia estuviera determinada “en otro lugar”, por ejemplo, por la “productividad marginal del capital”, como profesa la teoría neoclásica. En Le Capital au XXIème siècle, Piketty discute esta teoría y parece tener reservas sobre “los modelos económicos más simples” según los cuales “la tasa de rendimiento del capital debería ser exactamente igual a la productividad marginal del capital” (p. 336). Un poco más adelante parece dudar de nuevo: “el rendimiento medio del capital r, suponiendo que sea igual a la productividad marginal del capital” (p. 341). Sin embargo, estas reservas no impiden que Piketty se refiera explícitamente a la teoría neoclásica. Esto es muy claro en una presentación3/ donde resume su modelo de la siguiente manera: “la cuestión de si un aumento en la relación capital/ingreso b conduce a un aumento en la participación de las ganancias depende de la elasticidad de sustitución del capital al trabajo: si es mayor que 1, entonces la disminución de r=Fk es menor que el aumento de b, por lo que la participación en las beneficios aumenta”. Sin embargo, el jeroglífico Fk designa la productividad marginal del capital. La fórmula r=Fk significa que la tasa de ganancia es igual a esta productividad marginal del capital, dicho de otra forma, que es un atributo “técnico” del stock de capital, su “rendimiento”.
Y Piketty agrega: “Esto es exactamente lo que ha sucedido desde los años 1970-1980”. Así, según él, la caída de la parte de los salarios durante este período puede explicarse por el hecho de que la elasticidad de la función de producción es superior a 1 (lo que es por otra parte cuestionado por la mayoría de los estudios). Esto equivale a decir que la tasa de explotación, porque de eso es de lo que se trata, está determinada por las propiedades de la función de producción.

Es en este punto donde aparece el eclecticismo desenfrenado de Piketty. Después de haber vinculado la tasa de ganancia a parámetros tecnológicos, no teme decir lo contrario afirmando que la tasa de rendimiento del capital depende de “numerosos parámetros tecnológicos, psicológicos, sociales, culturales, etc., cuya conjunción parece generalmente conducir a un rendimiento de alrededor del 4 % -5 %” (p. 572). Sin duda, esto no es una teoría.

¿Cómo explicar la concentración de los patrimonios?
Hasta aquí, el modelo teórico de Piketty se ocupa de las desigualdades de ingresos entre el capital y el trabajo. Pero también hay que explicar las desigualdades de riqueza. La respuesta de Piketty toma una fórmula cabalística: r> g donde r es la tasa de rendimiento del capital y g la tasa de crecimiento de la economía. La idea subyacente es simple: r determina el crecimiento de la riqueza y g el de la renta. Cuando r es mayor que g, la riqueza aumenta más rápido que los ingresos, lo que conduce a un aumento en la concentración de la riqueza. Para Piketty, esta es otra “ley fundamental” del capitalismo, que resume con esta fórmula concisa, tomada de la presentación ya citada: “en un régimen permanente, el nivel de concentración de la riqueza es una función creciente de la brecha entre r y g”.

Intentaremos aplicar esta regla al caso de Francia durante el período 1980-2010, procediendo por etapas. En primer lugar (gráfico A), se constata que la relación no funciona: la parte del 10% más rico (Top10) aumenta, mientras que la diferencia entre r y g disminuye tendencialmente desde 1990 (lo que es sin duda el lado marxista de Piketty).
En una contribución anterior, habíamos calculado, a partir de los datos del INSEE, una tasa de ganancia R basada únicamente en el capital dedicado a la producción4/. Se observa entonces (gráfico B) que existe una correlación satisfactoria entre el Top10 y la diferencia entre la tasa de ganancia y la tasa de crecimiento. Por tanto, la regla sería más bien R> g.
Por tanto, la cuestión es la de la medición estadística de la tasa de ganancia en Piketty. Si se compara su tasa de rendimiento r con la tasa de ganancia R calculada sobre la base del capital productivo, se observa una desconexión muy clara entre las dos series. La tasa de rendimiento de Piketty ha caído durante la última década, mientras que la tasa de ganancia cae, pero mucho menos (gráfico C).

La fuente de la diferencia entre las dos medidas de la tasa de ganancia es bastante fácil de identificar. Proviene de la definición demasiado amplia de capital de Piketty, que agrega al capital productivo todos los activos susceptibles de proporcionar ingresos. En Le Capital au XXIème siècle, define al capital como “el conjunto de activos no humanos que pueden ser poseídos e intercambiados en un mercado. El capital incluye en particular todo el capital inmobiliario (inmuebles, casas) utilizado para vivienda y el capital financiero y profesional (edificios, equipos, máquinas, patentes, etc.) utilizado por las empresas y las administraciones” (p. 82). Y Piketty asume plenamente lo que, sin embargo, es un error teórico flagrante: “para simplificar la exposición, usaremos las palabras ‘capital’ y ‘herencia’ como sinónimos perfectos” (p. 84).

El capital así definido diverge del capital productivo cuando el precio de los otros componentes (vivienda, activos financieros, etc.) aumenta más rápidamente que el precio del capital productivo. Así, el gráfico D muestra que la brecha entre las dos medidas de la tasa de ganancia aumenta al mismo tiempo que aumenta el precio relativo de la vivienda5/.

Una interpretación alternativa
La explicación proporcionada por Piketty, por lo tanto, no funciona, por razones que se relacionan con su definición errónea del capital. Por tanto, es útil esbozar un enfoque alternativo. Retomamos aquí una contribución anterior6/ que proponía un esquema explicativo muy sencillo. Consiste en postular que la parte de la renta destinada a los más ricos depende de dos factores:

  • la caída de la parte salarial;
  • la política empresarial de distribución de las ganancias.

Esta hipótesis de trabajo se basa en una lectura7/ del funcionamiento del capitalismo neoliberal, en torno a dos grandes “hechos estilizados”. El primero es la caída de la participación de los salarios en el valor añadido de las empresas, lo que conduce a un aumento de la participación de las ganancias. Sin embargo, esto no conduce a un crecimiento de la inversión sino a una mayor distribución de dividendos. La base sobre la que se desarrollan las desigualdades es, por tanto, la caída de la participación de los salarios, es decir, el aumento de la tasa de explotación. Entonces, la plusvalía adicional así liberada y no invertida irá a los tenedores de activos financieros que podrán así incrementar su patrimonio.
Una aplicación para Francia

De acuerdo con nuestro pequeño modelo, utilizaremos dos variables extraídas de las cuentas nacionales elaboradas por el INSEE. La primera (parsal) es la parte de los salarios en el valor agregado de las sociedades no financieras. La segunda (distrib) es la relación entre los ingresos distribuidos por estas sociedades y su masa salarial; es un simple indicador del arbitraje entre accionistas y asalariados/as. La variable que se explicará (Top10) será la participación del 10% más rico en el ingreso nacional, según la calcula un estudio en profundidad del Word Inequality Database que cubre el período 1900-20148/.

Los datos utilizados se visualizan en el gráfico de abajo que traza la evolución de la participación del “Top10” y la de las variables explicativas: parte de las ganancias y tasa de distribución. Las variables están normalizadas (“centradas reducidas”) para facilitar su comparación.

Se constata que la participación del “Top10” aumenta, con fluctuaciones bastante grandes, hasta la crisis. Luego, a partir de 2009, tiene una tendencia a la baja. La parte de las ganancias aumentó considerablemente durante la década de 1980, luego se estabilizó y disminuyó con el inicio de la crisis. Por último, la tasa de distribución de las ganancias aumenta continuamente hasta la crisis y luego cae de forma bastante pronunciada9/. Esta presentación gráfica destaca un resultado importante: la marcha de escalera que atravesó la participación en las gananciass durante la década de 1980 (debido a la política de austeridad salarial) llevó a un aumento equivalente en la participación del “Top10” en los ingresos.

Ahora podemos proceder a la estimación econométrica de este pequeño modelo, lo que conduce a la ecuación que se presenta en la tabla de abajo.

Todos los coeficientes son significativos y, como muestra el gráfico de abajo, la ecuación explica correctamente el cambio en la participación del “Top10” entre 1978 y 2014.

El caso de Estados Unidos
Partiremos aquí del clásico gráfico elaborado por el EPI (Economic Policy Institute), un think tank que analiza desde 1986 la situación de la clase trabajadora en Estados Unidos10/. Este gráfico destaca la disociación entre el salario y la productividad del trabajo: los salarios se mantuvieron prácticamente planos desde la década de 1970, mientras que la productividad laboral siguió aumentando. La diferencia entre estas dos curvas mide el cambio en la división entre salarios y beneficios, en otras palabras, el aumento en la tasa de explotación. Esta es la primera variable explicativa que, por tanto, se denominará explotación.

Como en el caso de Francia, la segunda variable explicativa se refiere a la distribución de dividendos en proporción al beneficio. Aquí se utilizan datos de la BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis)11/. El siguiente gráfico muestra la evolución de esta tasa de distribución. Ha registrado fuertes fluctuaciones (especialmente durante la última crisis) pero se nota una clara inflexión alcista a principios de los años ochenta, que evidentemente se interrumpió durante la crisis de 2008.

La variable que se explica aquí es el “Top 0,1%”, es decir, la participación en la riqueza nacional en manos del 0,1% más rico12/. El siguiente gráfico muestra los cambios en las variables tomadas en cuenta. Se constata que evolucionan en fase.

Ahora se puede proceder de nuevo a la estimación econométrica de nuestro esquema. Conduce a la ecuación presentada en la siguiente tabla.

Aquí nuevamente, los coeficientes son todos significativos y, como muestra el gráfico de abajo, la ecuación explica correctamente la evolución de la participación del “Top 0.1” entre 1980 y 2018.

¿Qué implicaciones programáticas?

Las propuestas de Thomas Piketty en Francia, o de Emmanuel Saez y Gabriel Zucman en Estados Unidos, consisten principalmente en una reforma fiscal que permitiría reducir las desigualdades de riqueza. Evidentemente, no se trata de cuestionar su legitimidad: ¡obviamente eso sería algo bueno! Pero está claro que se limitan a corregir las desigualdades “a posteriori” en lugar de tratarlas “en la fuente”.

Este enfoque es lógico, si consideramos, como hace Piketty, que las desigualdades son de alguna manera un fenómeno “natural” en la medida en que resultan de mecanismos económicos que no se pueden (o no se quieren) cambiar. Por eso es importante cuestionar los fundamentos teóricos de análisis de este tipo. Si nuestra cuadrícula de lectura es correcta, si las desigualdades se anudan en el corazón de la producción, entonces es en este nivel donde se debe llevar a cabo la transformación social. Este último debe apuntar a modificar la división de la riqueza creada entre capital y trabajo, una vez más “en la fuente”.

El proyecto de Piketty de “socialismo participativo” no responde a este criterio. Además, se debe hablar más bien de “capitalismo participativo”, un proyecto utópico que se basa fundamentalmente en una doble reforma: la fiscalidad -ciertamente radical- y la composición de los consejos de administración de las empresas. Sobre estos dos puntos, Piketty entra en un absurdo detalle al proponer, por ejemplo, una escala impositiva muy precisa, con la ilusoria creencia de que esto podría fortalecer la credibilidad de su modelo. Y sobre todo, hay enormes lagunas en este proyecto que no dice nada, por ejemplo, del derecho al empleo (salvo una invocación abstracta de las ventajas de la formación).

Dime lo que propones y te diré cuál es tu teoría. Todas las debilidades del proyecto de Piketty tienen su origen en las imperfecciones de su modelo teórico y en su incomprensión de lo que es el capitalismo13/.

Traducción: viento sur

http://alencontre.org/societe/debat-decompter-les-inegalites-ne-suffit-pas-il-faut-les-expliquer.html

Notas:

1/ Ver por ejemplo Michel Husson, “Le capital au XXIème siècle Richesse des données, pauvreté de la théorie”, Contretemps, février 2014; versión PDF.

2/ Cuadros 5.3 et 6.6 de Le capital au XXIème siècleaccessibles aquí.

3/ Thomas Piketty, “Capital in the 21st century”, presentación, Colonia, diciembre de 2013.

4/ Ver de nuevo “Richesse des données, pauvreté de la théorie”, ya citado.

5/ Ver Michel Husson, “Capital et richesse chez Piketty”, note hussonet n°78, 9 de enero de 2015.

6/ Michel Husson, “Recul salarial, financiarisation, inégalités”, note hussonet n°111, 13 diciembre de 2019.

7/ Michel Husson, “Dix ans de crise … et puis Macron”, A l’encontre, 25 de agosto de 2017.

8/  Bertrand Garbinti, Jonathan Goupille-Lebret, Thomas Piketty, “Inequality Dynamics in France, 1900-2014: Evidence from Distributional National Accounts”, WID.world Working Paper, abril de 2017.

9/ Este último resultado se encuentra sin embargo oscurecido por una duda sobre los datos del Insee. Ver Michel Husson, “Où sont passés les dividendes?”, Alternatives économiques, 17 de octubre de 2018

10/ Ver aquí la última versión de este gráfico: EPI, The Productivity–Pay Gap, julio de 2019.

11/ La tasa de distribución se mide por la relación entre los dividendos netos abonados (net dividends) y las gananciass después de impuestos (profits after tax with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments). Los datos provienen del tableau 1.16 del BEA.

12/ Los datos están extraídos de un documento reciente de Emmanuel Saez y Gabriel Zucman, “Trends in US Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising After the Revisionists”, NBER, octubre de 2020. Están telecargables ici. Agradezco a Gabriel Zucman por poner estos datos a disposición en su web..

13/ Esta crítica se desarrolla más ampliamente en el libro redactado conjuntamente con Alain Bihr: Thomas Piketty, une critique illusoire du capital, Editions Page deux/Syllepse. [En esta web se han publicado reseñas sobre el libro: https://vientosur.info/thomas-piketty-una-denuncia-ilusoria-del-capital-de-alain-bihr-y-michel-husson/ y https://vientosur.info/el-libro-de-alain-bihr-y-michel-husson-sobre-los-de-thomas-piketty/]

Para  ver todas las imágenes: Convertir este artículo en PDF

https://vientosur.info/contabilizar-las-desigualdades-no-es-suficiente-hay-que-explicarlas/

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