Empiezan los 20, ¿los terribles 20?

La robotización y la inteligencia artificial van reduciendo el tiempo socialmente necesario de producción, lo que quiere decir que en compensación el mercado debe expandirse al máximo

ANDRÉS PIQUERAS, PROFESOR DE LA UNIVERSIDAD JAUME I

Este artículo del profesor Piqueras publicado en los primeros días de Enero de 2020, antes del COVID19, anticipa con rigurosidad y clarividencia los fundamentos profundos de la crisis de un sistema capitalista en estado de descomposición.

Las crisis, convertidas en recesiones o incluso en depresiones, han existido continua y periódicamente desde el inicio del capitalismo. El estadounidense National Bureau of Economic Research recoge 33 de ellas sólo desde 1854, una media de 2 por década, no habiendo habido nunca un periodo sin crisis por más de 11 años.

Alguien que no fuera un economista –como diría Marx- debería deducir que el capitalismo contiene alguna característica intrínseca que le conduce a ello. Las crisis tienen una variada gama de manifestaciones externas (de sub-consumo, financieras, por desajustes macroeconómicos o conmociones originadas por la propia competencia…), las mismas que sirven para elaborarexplicaciones causales superficiales cuando no directamente erróneas.

En realidad, las crisis estructurales del capitalismo parten de un común denominador, que es el que importa y que se niega a entender la ciencia económica reinante: la caída del valor. El valor es la sangre que recorre el cuerpo del sistema capitalista, y está entrañado en el tiempo socialmente necesario que tardan en producirse unas u otras mercancías.

La automatización de los procesos productivos no sólo ha ido desechando seres humanos de los mismos, condenándolos a un desempleo crónico o a un empleo cada vez más precario (que es a menudo también una forma de desempleo camuflado), sino que va reduciendo el tiempo necesario de producción y con ello el valor (“la sangre” del sistema). En consecuencia, elsistema se va gangrenando. Pero lejos de intentar alguna cura, hoy asistimos a su loca huida hacia adelante (algo así como si a quien le diagnostican un mal grave decidiese irse de copas y comilonas todos los días).

A lo largo de la historia la clase capitalista ha encontrado diversos remedios contra esa enfermedad crónica: aumentar la explotación de la población trabajadora, invertir allá donde todavía no se daban los procesos de tecnificación de la economía, acortar el tiempo entre la fabricación y la venta, entre algunos otros (además de apropiarse de la riqueza colectiva mediante privatizaciones o negarse a pagar impuestos, claro). Pero había una salida imprescindible, si la tecnificación hacía decaer el valor de cada mercancía (fijémonos, por ejemplo, en la estandarización que supone una cadena de montaje para el valor –y el precio- de una mesa, y el valor –y precio- que tendría hecha a mano, artesanalmente), le permitía también hacer cada vez más mercancías en menos tiempo.

Si antes, por imaginar un ejemplo, hacer una mesa costaba 2 días, ahora se puede producir en dos horas. Lo único que hay que hacer para compensar que el tiempo-valor ha disminuido 24 veces, es producir al menos 24 mesas en 2 días. Pero claro, para eso necesito que haya 23 compradores más que antes. Esto no debe resultar difícil si tenemos en cuenta que ahora las mesas salen mucho más baratas precisamente por su rápida fabricación y estandarización. El problema está en que este movimiento es exponencial.

La robotización y la inteligencia artificial van reduciendo el tiempo socialmente necesario de producción al mínimo, lo que quiere decir que en compensación el mercado debe expandirse al máximo. La “globalización” se dio con ese propósito, pero hoy está alcanzada la máxima expansión física y nada indica que el capitalismo vaya a ser capaz de empobrecer a las poblaciones del mundo (con desempleo, subempleo, destrucción de condiciones sociales y laborales…) y al mismo tiempo hacerlas que compren cada vez más. De hecho, lo único que ha permitido la continuidad del consumo desde los años 70 del siglo XX en los países “ricos” ha sido el crédito, o visto desde el otro lado, el endeudamiento masivo y creciente (tanto de particulares como de empresas, instituciones públicas y Estados).

La implicación de esa dinámica de fabricación incesantemente creciente de mercancías es la extracción también incesantemente creciente de recursos naturales y la utilización incesantemente creciente de energía.

En 1972 el Club de Roma emitió el informe Los límites al crecimiento, juntando datos de producción industrial, población, recursos, energía, alimentos, contaminación, sumideros… en el que se preveían las consecuencias que íbamos a afrontar de seguir el curso de la producción-consumo y crecimiento exponencial.

En 1991 algunos de los mismos científicos insistieron en un nuevo informe, titulado Más allá de los límites del crecimiento,en que en esa década nos situábamos ante el sobrepasamiento: era la última oportunidad de frenar si no queríamos despeñarnos por el precipicio. Después, aunque lo hiciéramos, la propia inercia nos llevaría hasta él sin remedio.

La Más allá de algunas de las intenciones políticas del Club de Roma, sus predicciones se han ido cumpliendo cabalmente (como ha mostrado la Universidad de Melbourne). Ya para la segunda década de este siglo las consecuencias apuntadas han comenzado a alcanzar la conciencia colectiva mundial. Pero parece ser que la década que inauguramos de los 20 sería la que cobrarían una realidad todavía más palpable, incontestable aun para los más acérrimos negacionistas del daño que causamos al hábitat planetario.

Algunos de los poderosos del mundo se acaban de reunir en Madrid, en la Cumbre Social por el Clima, para intentar por enésima vez hacer como que hacen algo, y por enésima vez dejar al descubierto su falta de intención para ello, que en realidad traduce su incapacidaden tal sentido.

Y no puede ser de otra forma, porque en contra de los bonitos discursos y la gran preocupación exhibida, lo que de verdad estamos pidiendo a las elites mundiales para “salvar el planeta”, es que se suiciden como capitalistas. Porque, repitamos, el capitalismo es un modo de producción basado sine qua non en el crecimiento. Todo en él depende de que se siga creciendo (pensemos simplemente en cómo demonios se va a pagar toda la ingente cantidad de deudas contraídas, que supera ya 4 veces el PIB mundial, si no es así).

Las dinámicas del valor son dictatoriales: requieren más mercancías, más pulsión de consumo, más despilfarro energético. No importa si hay que reducir la calidad de los productos para vender más barato, si hay que recurrir a la obsolescencia programada y a fechas de vencimientos arbitrarias para acortar la vida útil de aquéllos, si hay que subutilizar bienes y servicios, maquinarias e instalaciones sirviéndose de la ideología de la “innovación tecnológica”.

Con la tasa de utilización decreciente (por ejemplo, la del autoprivado es tan sólo de un 1% -y encima quieren que lo renovemos antes, con la excusa de la contaminación, como si fabricar coches, sean eléctricos o de cualquier otra energía, no fuera ‘contaminante’-) se expande el capital, pero se destruyen bienes de uso y naturaleza. Sólo la energía fósil es capaz de mantener ese derroche. Ninguna otra permite este tipo de civilización (ni siquiera el hiperconsumo de mercancías “verdes” a las que nos abocarán en adelante).

Pronto, este mes de enero se reunirán en Suiza, allí sí en serio, los grandes del planeta, como Foro de Davos, para dictar lo que tienen que hacer los diferentes gobiernos del mundo. Las instituciones supraestatales (FMI, Banco Mundial, OMC, G20…) se encargarán de precisar y hacer operativas las medidas a seguir.

En nuestro caso, el macro-Estado de la UE impone unas normas de obligado cumplimiento sobre inflación, déficit presupuestario, deuda pública o tipos de interés, por encima de decisiones parlamentarias y por tanto de cualquier opción democrática. En consecuencia, nuestros Estados carecen de soberanía monetaria y fiscal, tienen las manos atadas en asuntos económicos y la soberanía popular y la “igualdad de los nacionales” es sólo una triste invocación de quienes venden los países (sus transportes, energía, comunicaciones, servicios y viviendas públicas, etc.) a las grandes transnacionales del mundo.

Los Felices 20 del siglo XX

Los años 70 del siglo XIX inauguraron la primera Larga Crisis del capitalismo. La misma que llevaría a la expansión imperial de Europa y a crecientes tensiones entre las potencias que desembocarían en dos Guerras Mundiales, la misma que posibilitó la mayor desconexión con el mundo capitalista conocida hasta hoy (la Revolución Soviética) y provocó el mayor crack bursátil hasta nuestros días, así como una conmoción de alcance mundial.

Sin embargo, la década de los 20 del siglo XX pareció ajena a todo ello. Los “Felices 20” fue una expresión acuñada en torno a la expansión económica de EE.UU., favorecida por el hundimiento europeo tras la I Gran Guerra. “Felicidad” que a partir del 1924 se expandiría a ciertas oligarquías europeas propiciando un clima de euforia nerviosa y ciega confianza en el sistema capitalista.

Pero mientras las viejas y nuevas clases ricas disfrutaban con el “can-can”, el mundo se iba hundiendo bajo sus pies. Al tiempo que se daba el auge del fascismo en Italia, se gestaba el lento progreso del nazismo en Alemania y se incubaba una poderosa burbuja financiera contraída a través de sobrevaloración de activos empresariales y un desenfrenado sistema de endeudamiento y compra a plazos que desembocó en el crack del 29. La desolación, el deterioro y el pesimismo social se adueñaron de los años 30, hasta que estallara la mayor guerra que haya conocido hasta ahora la humanidad.

La Crisis de Larga Duración de lossiglosXX-XXI

Desde los años 70 del siglo XX las elites mundiales vienen intentando escapar de la Segunda Larga Crisis capitalista que, sin embargo, se resiste a dejarnos. Han probado de todo: medidas neoliberales, neokeynesianas, globalización, crédito masivo, especulación financiera con sus burbujeos bursátiles y finalmente, aprendiendo de la crisis del 29, han recurrido a la ingente invención de dinero mágico, sin ningún valor detrás.

Un dinero sacado de la chistera (en torno a 15 billones de dólares desde 2010) que conceden a las grandes empresas y Bancos “demasiado grandes para caer” (evitando el efecto dominó en la economía y al tiempo evidenciando que lo de la “libre competencia” no se lo han creído nunca), con lo que modifican sus números, ocultan sus descubiertos y aparentan que el sistema funciona y el mundo empresarial y bancario van bien. Pero todo esto no hace sino acumular una “tormenta perfecta”, una enorme explosión de la economía, en proporciones tendencialmente horrendas, que puede hacer irrisorias las crisis del 29 y de 2007-2008 juntas.

Será muy difícil que la década de los 20 de este siglo pase sin que ese cataclismo, o al menos, algún serio anticipo del mismo, ocurra. Por lo que, aunque parezca que las poblaciones del mundo, especialmente las autodenominadas “occidentales”, siguen ajenas al volcán que se incuba bajo sus pies, como en los “Felices 20”, pronto no tendrán más remedio que enterarse de lo que pasa.

Esta década de los 20 nos deparará el fin de la ilusión de la “crisis” como un accidente del capitalismo, que una vez superado dejará la marcha hacia el progreso y el bienestar. El fin de la no percepción del cambio climático y de un hábitat severamente dañado será también inevitable.

Hay una elevada probabilidad de que el capitalismo se haga cada vez más salvaje. La geoeconomía, la geoestrategia y la geopolítica de un sistema en decadencia, con recursos cada vez más escasos, tenderán a militarizarse y amenazar al conjunto de la humanidad. Especialmente la OTAN y la potencia en declive, EE.UU., se mostrarán cada vez más agresivas, como estamos viendo sobre todo en centro-Asia y muy concretamente en la ofensiva contra Irán.

Además, las guerras económicas y guerras por los recursos se combinarán con “guerras sociales”, de arriba abajo, que las elites del mundo vienenemprendiendo contra las poblaciones para intentar preservar sus privilegios y beneficios, y que se intensificarán. Por eso mismo, habrá más posibilidades de que la década de los 20 sea también la de las movilizaciones totales, de las que Chile y Francia, y cada vez más Colombia, están dando una avanzadilla.

Pero atención, porque la inteligencia artificial, el Big Data y el control casi total de los dispositivos de información, formación y socialización puede deformar hasta la náusea lo que ocurre. Permite, en cualquier caso, que la clase capitalista global, o unas u otras fracciones de ella, “creen” movilizaciones masivas, se inventen reacciones “populares”, fabriquen atentados de falsa bandera, provoquen levantamientos y muevan vehementes sentimientos de masas.

En un capitalismo de dinero y capital ficticios, la realidad también se hace “virtual”, y será cada vez más difícil distinguir lo genuino de lo fabricado por la ingeniería social. Los “fascismos” del siglo XXI no son-serán como los del XX (vaciada de sustancia la democracia, se pueden-podrán permitir incluso ser “democráticos”).

Frente a ello, todo indica que habrá que construir nuevas fuerzas sociopolíticas transformadoras, puesto que la casi totalidad de las actuales están lejos de comprender los desafíos históricos a que nos enfrentamos. Integradas más o menos cómodamente en el sistema, no tienen muchas intenciones de ver que hoy ser reformista o imaginar la mejora sostenida del capitalismo es ser enormemente irrealista. Tan irrealista como creer en ese esperpento del “crecimiento sostenible” (no es de extrañar que “El nuevo acuerdo para España” de PSOE-Unidas Podemos – sin medición de objetivos concretos, cronograma ni presupuesto- comience precisamente con el título de “Consolidar el crecimiento”).

En los años 20 del siglo XX, a pesar de todo, las poblaciones mantenían ilusión en el futuro. Hoy esa ilusión sumamente debilitada, fruto del deterioro socio-natural, apenas deja para centrarse en el día a día, mientras se va instalando la percepción del futuro comocatástrofe. ¿Podrá ser que en esta década que estos días estrenamos, las reacciones populares eviten que se convierta en la década de los “Terribles 20”?

Recordemos que el “sobrepasamiento” se ha realizado. Ya no podemos evitar el golpetazo ecológico (ni por tanto, el económico). Ahora de lo que se trata es de que sea lo menos duro posible, y de que el “shock civilizacional” sirva al menos para empezar a construir otro mundo. Las próximas fuerzas político-sociales que tengan algo que decir serán las que sepan dar una respuesta a ello.

El desafío es descomunal, pues a la postre, de lo que se trata verdaderamente, es de dejar atrás la barbarie capitalista.

Empiezan los 20, ¿los terribles 20?

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