Las orejas del lobo

El penultimo ejemplo es el reconocimiento de la deuda, interna y externa, de EEUU: la friolera de 28 billones de dólares.


Mientras Occidente sigue actuando como si no pasara nada, como si siguiese siendo el ombligo del mundo (las sanciones contra Rusia por el bufón Navalny -recordad a Assange como contrapunto-) la realidad es la que es y ayuda un poco a interpretar qué es lo que está pasando. Y lo que está pasando es que Occidente se cae a pedazos y que EEUU cada vez tiene más grietas, internas y externas, que ya no se pueden ni ocultar ni reparar.

Todavía Occidente sigue su viejo y gastado discurso de que EEUU es la principal economía del mundo. No es así, como ya os he comentado aquí y aquí, por ejemplo, pero dejémosle tranquilito con su discurso.

En toda esta historia hay un hecho cierto: EEUU nunca ha dejado de pagar su deuda. La explicación no es que EEUU sea un excelente país que cumple sus compromisos, sino que lo hace porque no tiene nada que perder dado que es el dólar la moneda que ocupa el lugar central en el sistema de cambios internacional. Pagar en dólares significa retroalimentarse a sí mismo.

Pero eso ha ido perdiendo poder de año en año, casi de mes en mes. Y eso es lo que pone de los pelos a EEUU y ayuda a entender el por qué no hay, ni habrá, ninguna diferencia entre la presidencia de Trump y la de Biden. A nivel interno, Biden ya se ha desdicho de una de sus promesas estrella, subir el salario mínimo a 15 dólares la hora, por dar un dato (supongo que el “izquierdista” Bernie Sanders estará comiéndose sus manoplas). A nivel externo, ya lo dejó claro en su discurso de 20 minutos y lo está cimentando con el bombardeo a las fuerzas iraquíes (denominadas pro-iraníes) en la frontera sirio-iraquí, en volver a reconocer al Juanito Calamidad venezolano y acusar a Venezuela de “amenaza inusual y extraordinaria a la seguridad de EEUU” y en las sanciones contra Rusia a lo que se acaba de sumar el llamamiento “imperativo” a que China “cumpla los acuerdos económicos firmados con Trump y denominados Fase 1″ con los que se firmó la tregua en la guerra de aranceles (comenzada por EEUU, no hay que olvidarlo).

La cuestión es que ahora la deuda externa de EEUU se considera uno de los mayores riesgos mundiales por la caída del dólar como moneda de reserva mundial. Os lo repito: en 2020 el dólar suponía el 61’63% de todas las reservas monetarias internacionales, en 2021 ha comenzado siendo solo del 60’5%, y descendiendo.

Aunque hay quien dice que eso no es un problema real porque EEUU solo tiene que incrementar la impresión de dólares para pagar (una ventaja nada despreciable porque otros países lo tienen que hacer en su propia moneda y luego pagar en dólares, con lo que al final pagan más), Biden está preso de sus promesas de reformas internas (que tampoco hará) y eso generaría una mayor inflación y, consiguientemente, una pérdida de confianza entre sus votantes que reforzaría no solo a los republicanos sino a Trump, que ya ha dicho que va a volver.

Aunque el 65% de esa deuda es interna, el resto es el problema. Es decir, unos 10 billones. Uno de los temores de EEUU es que China, que es el principal acreedor (con casi el 12% de los bonos del tesoro de EEUU en su poder), se deshaga de ellos con lo que automáticamente el dólar se desplomaría por debajo del 50% como moneda de reserva mundial. El otro gran acreedor es Japón, con casi otro 12% y muy por detrás están Gran Bretaña y Brasil con apenas el 3% cada uno.

Está claro que esta es la gran baza china, pero que no usará mientras no se sienta obligada a ello y menos en una situación como la de ahora en la que su prestigio y capacidad de recuperación económica se ha disparado tras vencer la pandemia mientras que Occidenrte sigue sumido en el pozo (y no digamos EEUU).

Aunque Japón, Gran Bretaña y Brasil son vasallos de EEUU y no se van a atrever a darle la espalda, la otra parte del problema es que los países se vayan retirando del mercado financiero estadounidense porque hay otras alternativas al dólar. Y esa es la situación ahora y el por qué de la importancia de los datos sobre el déficit de EEUU.

Es conocido que China va a poner en marcha el renmimbi digital el año que viene y que el Sistema de Pagos Interbancarios de China, la alternativa al SWIFT occidental, estaba siendo utilizado por bancos iraníes y rusos, además de chinos, para eludir y mitigar el impacto de las sanciones occidentales. Es conocido, también, que Venezuela o Siria habían manifestado su interés en la alternativa china para luchar contra las sanciones. En definitiva, que estos países ya están renunciando al dólar.

En pocas palabras: Occidente, y EEUU en particular, está viendo las orejas al lobo. Por lo tanto, no han tenido más remedio que aplicar el viejo dicho de que si no puedes vencer a tu enemigo te tienes que unir a él. Es lo que acaba de hacer EEUU por la puerta de atrás al aceptar que el SWIFT, el sistema de pagos transfronterizos internacionales controlado por el dólar, haya establecido una empresa conjunta con China. Es decir, se asume la internacionalización del yuan en detrimento del dólar, se reduce la exposición de este país a las sanciones de EEUU (y, de rebote, las de Rusia e Irán, abriendo la puerta a otros países que se pueden acoger a la moneda china de forma oficial en sus transacciones financieras internacionales), y supone una amenaza abierta en el medio plazo al euro y al yen, las otras grandes monedas de reserva internacional. Esto es, en la práctica, lo que ha ocurrido aunque EEUU también se asegura que durante un tiempo el dólar va a seguir siendo predominante en el mercado financiero mundial.

¿Por qué todo esto? Pues porque si el yuan o renmimbi había comenzado este 2021 habiendo subido al 2’13% como moneda de reserva global (el 1’97% en 2020), dos meses más tarde se sitúa ya en el 2’42%. Todo va rápido, muy rápido, y es el efecto más visible de la pandemia y de cómo la ve el mundo.

Es evidente que aún la moneda china, que no se ha internacionalizado formalmente, no olvidéis esto, sigue teniendo una participación pequeña en las reservas mundiales, pero cada vez más países la están viendo como un refugio seguro frente al dólar y al euro. Y ese incremento en solo dos meses ha vuelto a poner de manifiesto que no se puede parar una historia que ya no es occidental.

Es evidente, también, que el paso dado por EEUU es táctico, para lograr una tregua que permita reforzar posiciones, aunque también lo hará China y en mayor medida. Pero es un indicativo muy claro de por dónde van las cosas.

Y por si todo ello no estuviese claro aún, el presidente chino, Xi Jinping, acaba de tener una intervención crucial en un seminario especial de la Quinta Sesión Plenaria del XIX Comité Central del Partido Comunista en el que el título lo dice todo: “Oriente está aumentando y Occidente está disminuyendo”. Pues eso, una gran verdad.

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