¿Por qué China ganó la batalla contra el COVID-19?

 

Alessandro Pagani: Historiador y escritor; doctorante en Teoria Crítica y Psicoanálisis en el Instituto de Estudios Criticos de México; autor del libro Desde la estrategia de la tensión a la operación cóndo

 

Independientemente del marximetro que se utiliza para lanzar adjetivos o definiciones políticas sobre China, la eficacia demostrada por el gigante asiático para resolver rápidamente la crisis sanitaria provocada por el COVID-19 y minimizar su impacto económico, especialmente en comparación con las experiencias de los países occidentales, es universalmente reconocida (o casi).

Pero, ¿a qué se debe atribuir este éxito? Según el economista italiano Francesco Macheda de la Universidad Bifrost, en Islandia, autor de un reciente trabajo sobre el tema, The role of State-Owned Enterprises in China’s fight against the coronavirus disease razones (El papel de las empresas estatales en la lucha de China contra el COVID-19), se encuentran principalmente en las características estructurales del modelo de desarrollo chino, y más específicamente en la extensión del sector público de la economía China y el papel clave de las empresas estatales (empresas estatales, SOE), así como la fuerte presencia pública dentro del sector bancario, el sector industrial. La tesis de Macheda es que la presencia masiva del Estado en la economía “le ha brindado al gobierno del país los recursos necesarios para reducir significativamente el tiempo para resolver la crisis de salud, reactivar prontamente la cadena productiva nacional y maximizar la efectividad de los estímulos fiscales”. y las políticas monetarias tienden a estabilizar la producción “.

A pesar de la creciente importancia de las empresas privadas en el país, de hecho, las empresas estatales continúan desempeñando un papel fundamental en el desarrollo industrial chino. Macheda recuerda cómo en 2017 las empresas públicas poseían el 48,1 por ciento del capital social empleado en la industria, en particular en sectores estratégicos “pesados” como minería y energía, acero, metalurgia y mecánica, pero también en sectores de alto valor agregado como tecnología automotriz y de la información, así como el 90 por ciento de los activos en manos de las 500 empresas más grandes que operan dentro de las fronteras nacionales. A modo de comparación, en los países europeos más avanzados, la participación “pública” del capital social total es dos o tres veces menor que la de la Republica popular de China.

“El papel protagónico de las empresas estatales – escribe Macheda – está íntimamente ligado a la estrategia de desarrollo típica de los países socialistas y aún hoy perseguida por el gobierno chino, centrada en mantener el pleno empleo y al mismo tiempo apoyar a las industrias siderúrgica, metalúrgica y mecánica”. En este sentido, “la redundancia de mano de obra empleada por las empresas públicas sirve a objetivos políticos” incluso antes de que sea económica, en primer lugar el mantenimiento de la estabilidad social, incluso a costa de una reducción de la rentabilidad. De hecho, sólo en raras ocasiones las empresas estatales persiguen objetivos destinados a maximizar las ganancias.

Esto, sin embargo, “no constituyó un límite para la expansión excesiva de la capacidad de producción de las empresas estatales”. Esto se debe al segundo pilar del modelo de desarrollo chino, a saber, el firme control público sobre el sector bancario, que a su vez tiene una relación privilegiada con el sistema de las empresas estatales. Los bancos comerciales más grandes del país están regulados conjuntamente por el banco central (Banco Popular de China, BPC) y la Comisión Reguladora de Banca y Seguros de China. Estas instituciones, a su vez, dependen directamente del Consejo de Estado, es decir, del poder ejecutivo. Además, los cuatro bancos públicos más grandes del país rinden cuentas directamente al gobierno y juntos poseen el 43,2 por ciento de los activos bancarios. Incluidos los otros bancos comerciales, señala Macheda, “el gobierno controla, directa o indirectamente, más del 75 por ciento de los activos bancarios de China. […] [Esta] posición monopolística de facto le ha permitido al gobierno imponer un alto grado de ‘represión’ dentro del sector financiero”.

Pandemia de la COVID-19 ha impuesto una crisis económica en escala mundial

De hecho, mediante el control directo e indirecto del sistema bancario, el gobierno chino no solo puede aun mantener a niveles muy bajos los tipos de interés de los depósitos y préstamos, sino que sobre todo puede intervenir en las decisiones relativas a la asignación de recursos financieros, aquí Macheda señala que “generalmente no se realizan en base a criterios ligados al desempeño de las unidades productivas. Más bien, responden a consideraciones puramente estratégicas, que tienden a apoyar el desarrollo de la industria pesada dominada por las empresas estatales, independientemente de su rentabilidad”. Esta tríada de “sistema político-sistema bancario-empresa estatal industrial” es lo que permitió a China mantener la tasa de inversión, empleo y PIB tras la crisis financiera de 2007-9, informa el investigador italiano.

En la primera fase de la pandemia (enero-mediados de febrero de 2020), el cierre total o parcial de las plantas en la provincia de Hubei afectó duramente al sector clave de la economía china, a saber, el sector manufacturero, provocando un impacto negativo tanto en el oferta y demanda, y una enorme caída de la producción (según los estándares chinos) de -6,8 por ciento. En esta primera fase, escribe Macheda, “la relevancia de un sector de la economía protegido de las fuerzas competitivas ha limitado el condicionamiento que ejercen los operadores del mercado sobre el ámbito gubernamental, dotando a este último de la capacidad institucional para implementar con prontitud estrictas medidas de bloqueo. […] La hipótesis sugerida es que el mayor peso ocupado en la estructura de propiedad de la industria nacional otorga a los tomadores de decisiones políticos chinos la capacidad de resistir la presión ejercida por los grupos de interés, otorgándoles cierta independencia con respecto a las necesidades de maximización de beneficiarse del sistema empresarial. En otras palabras, la importancia de la esfera pública dentro de la economía indica un peso diferente de la influencia de las organizaciones empresariales en la esfera política china, en comparación con lo que ocurre en el mundo capitalista avanzado. […] De manera adyacente, el “exceso de capacidad de producción estructural” ha permitido a las empresas públicas proveer bienes y servicios durante el contexto de emergencia. […] En virtud de su capacidad de producción, Las empresas estatales han contribuido a la rápida finalización de la fase de emergencia, no solo desarrollando tecnologías que han reducido los tiempos de diagnóstico y tratamiento, sino también aumentando la producción de material de protección y construyendo infraestructuras de emergencia en tiempos extremadamente cortos. […] En general, esto ha reducido el tiempo de resolución de la crisis sanitaria, frenando la caída de los ingresos y evitando peligrosas espirales inflacionarias”.

La acción de las empresas estatales, especialmente en términos de control de precios, también ha permitido paliar los costos puramente sociales inherentes a la primera fase de la emergencia. Por ejemplo, la State Grid Corporation de China ha garantizado el suministro gratuito de energía a los hogares de la ciudad de Wuhan, al tiempo que ha aumentado la oferta de estaciones de carga de energía gratuitas. Otras empresas públicas como China Grain Reserves Group, COFCO Group y China Resources Group han incrementado la producción de alimentos, al tiempo que garantizan los servicios de transporte y distribución, y fortalecen la supervisión de los minoristas para evitar fenómenos especulativos sobre el costo de alimentos y necesidades básicas.

En la segunda fase de la crisis, que aún continúa, caracterizada por el alivio del bloqueo en China pero por la expansión simultánea de la pandemia a nivel mundial, que ha impactado fuertemente las exportaciones chinas, el gobierno chino ha recurrido a una serie de Intervenciones fiscales y monetarias con el objetivo de apoyar la demanda interna y, en particular, de reactivar la cadena industrial china lo antes posible y salvaguardar su funcionamiento. El enfoque adoptado por el banco central chino se ha diferenciado notablemente del de los otros grandes bancos centrales, como el Banco Central Europeo, BCE: donde estos últimos han inundado los mercados de liquidez a través de importantes planes de compra de bonos y se han limitado en su mayoría a ofrecer garantías públicas de varios tipos a los bancos, Centrándose en la dudosa capacidad del sistema bancario para actuar como una “correa de transmisión” hacia el sistema de empresas privadas (como lo demuestra el caso de Italia), “la política monetaria en China se ha preocupado por asegurar que la liquidez colocada en el mercado sea utilizado eficazmente para garantizar la supervivencia de las empresas de las PYME. Los tres bancos públicos más grandes fueron presionados por el Banco Popular de China para aumentar la oferta de crédito a favor de las pymes “no menos del 30 por ciento [en comparación con el primer trimestre de 2019]”. Al mismo tiempo, se ha autorizado a los bancos estatales a aumentar la cantidad de crédito que se concederá a las pequeñas y medianas empresas a 350.000 millones de yuanes (50.000 millones de euros).

Macheda escribe; “Dentro de este marco regulatorio destinado a aliviar la presión sobre el flujo de caja de las pymes, el PBC ha proporcionado a las entidades de crédito aproximadamente 800.000 millones de yuanes (116.000 millones de euros) a tipos de interés controlados. Si bien 300 mil millones han fluido a empresas involucradas en la lucha contra el coronavirus, 500 mil millones se destinarán progresivamente a financiar la reapertura de plantas, la recuperación de la producción y el pago de atrasos de las pymes. A principios de abril de 2020, el gobierno otorgó al PBC un mandato para ampliar las operaciones de refinanciamiento en otro billón de dólares para expandir la oferta de crédito para bancos pequeños y medianos a lo largo del año. […] La acción conjunta de CBIRC, El PBC y los bancos públicos permitieron transmitir de manera efectiva los estímulos monetarios a la economía real. En los primeros tres meses de 2020, el sistema bancario desvió 7,25 billones de yuanes al sector real de la economía (+12,7 por ciento inter anual). Esto constituye más del 65 por ciento del total “financiamiento total a la economía real”, y esta última creció en 2.486 mil millones de yuanes con respecto al año anterior.

Cabe señalar que “los mayores beneficiarios de la expansión crediticia fueron las instituciones públicas y las empresas, que recibieron el 85,1 por ciento de los préstamos otorgados por las instituciones financieras”.

China, de las pocas economías que registran crecimiento, a pesar de la COVID-19

La acción anti-cíclica emprendida por el gobierno chino a partir de finales de marzo de 2020, que tiene el doble objetivo de respaldar tanto el PIB como los niveles de empleo, también se centró en un vasto programa de inversión en infraestructura, financiado principalmente por el tema de bonos de gobiernos locales por valor de 3.750 millones de yuanes (1.600 más que en 2019), tanto en áreas tradicionales como más modernas.

En definitiva, argumenta Macheda, “la crisis por la erupción del COVID-19 muestra cómo la eficiencia asignativa del sector privado puede convertirse rápidamente en macro-ineficiencia a nivel social”. Frente a una pandemia, de hecho, no es posible apoyarse en los mecanismos del mercado para atender la creciente demanda del sector público de materiales y equipos médico-sanitarios (ventiladores, mascarillas, etc.), ni siquiera la construcción de nuevas estructuras. hospital: no solo no hay garantía de que los agentes privados consideren suficientes los retornos esperados para justificar la inversión, ni que el aumento de la oferta satisfaga las necesidades de atención de la población, sino “el espacio temporal entre su planificación, implementación, hasta la activación de la capacidad de producción podría resultar tan extenso que haría casi inútil la expansión de la capacidad de producción. Podríamos llegar a la situación paradójica de terminar con la construcción de estructuras especializadas para el tratamiento de la neumonía viral solo después de que la epidemia haya sido erradicada. Por estas razones, como acertadamente señala Dani Rodrik, “no hay nada como una pandemia que pueda mostrar la inadecuación de los mercados ante problemas de acción colectiva, y al mismo tiempo resaltar la importancia de la capacidad del Estado para hacer frente a las crisis y proteger a la población”.

«Es precisamente en las fases de crisis como la actual en las que la ‘ineficiencia’ del sector público se traduce en macro eficiencia social», escribe Macheda. «No en vano, uno de los países más eficaces para minimizar las pérdidas tanto en términos de vidas humanas como en términos económicos -y que parece destinado a evitar una recesión- es China, donde el sector estatal ocupa los centros neurálgicos de la vida económica. En virtud de su poder monopolístico de facto sobre el sector bancario, el gobierno ha sido y sigue siendo capaz de reprimir los ingresos financieros y al mismo tiempo canalizar recursos en beneficio de sectores considerados estratégicos. Esto es especialmente cierto para las empresas estatales industriales, que, a pesar de su escasa eficiencia y rentabilidad, han contribuido a elevar los niveles de empleo por encima de los compatibles con su “supervivencia” en un sistema de mercado puro. […] Aunque desde un punto de vista puramente capitalista esto sólo puede considerarse “irracional” (e ineficiente), desde un punto de vista social la maximización del uso de los recursos productivos (trabajadores y capital) sólo puede considerarse ” racional “(y eficiente). Es esta característica estructural la que ha hecho que la economía china esté mejor preparada para hacer frente a la crisis actual, porque es precisamente en los momentos críticos donde surge claramente la necesidad de maximizar la producción a pesar de los retornos garantizados por la inversión o la capacidad de remunerar a los ahorradores. de una manera “adecuada”

 

https://www.globalizacion.ca/por-que-china-gano-la-batalla-contra-el-covid-19/

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